Estee Lauder’s Beauty Sleep Interrupted

😓 So, EL's earnings weren't exactly on fire. They made less money than Wall Street expected, and the future's not looking too bright. Their earnings per share (EPS) came in at 47 cents, while the big shots on Wall Street thought it'd be 51 cents. And let me tell ya, they're cutting their future expectations like there's no tomorrow!

🔪 Their EPS outlook for the fiscal year got sliced from around $4.87-$5.02 to just $3.34. That's with only one quarter left, so June's not gonna be a walk in the park for them. Everybody thought EL would be rolling in cash from the China recovery, but that just hasn't happened yet.

🌏 Turns out, their travel retail business in Asia is struggling more than expected. Places like Hainan and Korea are taking longer than anticipated to bounce back from COVID. People are traveling, but they're not splurging on fancy beauty products. In mainland China, they did see some growth in the last quarter, but it wasn't as much as they hoped.

⚠️ In short, this financial news is pretty negative. Estee Lauder's cash flow is drying up, and they'll need to step up their game or be prepared for some tough times ahead.

🌍 Breakfast Macros

😊 Morning market snapshot – US equity futures are looking a bit better this morning: S&P is up 5.7 points, Dow is gaining 36 points, and Nasdaq is rising 22.5 points. But some stocks aren't feeling the love. AMD, Ford, and Starbucks missed their chance to shine, down 5.5%, 1%, and 4.6% respectively. Some regional bank stocks are also having a tough time (PACW, WAL).

🌅 Morning buzz – Investors are chilling out as they get ready for an important meeting with the Federal Reserve in a few hours (and don't forget the European Central Bank and Apple earnings on Thursday). There hasn't been much news since the US market closed, but central banks in Malaysia and Australia have raised interest rates to tackle inflation. As for earnings, companies are showing strong first-quarter results, but they're not raising their predictions for the year. Ford and Starbucks, which both did better than expected in the first quarter, are now wearing the "disappointing" badge since they're keeping their 2023 outlooks unchanged – it's like getting a high-five when you expected a hug.

⏰ Fed watch – At 2 PM EST, everyone will be glued to the Fed's statement. The market's reaction will hinge on how the Fed talks about the need for more action to manage inflation. If the Fed's statement suggests they're serious about fighting inflation and considering raising interest rates, the market may react with enthusiasm. On the other hand, if the Fed seems more cautious and doesn't hint at raising rates, the market may see this as a less aggressive approach to inflation – it's like swapping out a thriller novel for some light bedtime reading.

🍴 Earnings Continued!

Dine Brands cooked up solid EPS upside of $1.97 and comps that beat for Applebee's and IHOP, but they're playing it cool by keeping their full-year guidance unchanged 🥞. So, let's call it a positive appetizer 🍽️👍.

Vita Coco is feeling hydrated with their Q1 upside, including EBITDA of $9MM and raised guidance for the year 💦. They're sipping on cost efficiencies and it's lookin' positive 🥥👍.

Brinker reported modest EPS upside with higher comps and restaurant margins 🍔. Looks like a tasty result for them, so we're calling it positive 😋👍.

Estee Lauder, my oh my, revenue was mostly inline, but they missed on EPS and slashed their guidance 💄. The China recovery isn't benefiting them yet, so it's looking negative for now, darling 😢👎.

Hanesbrands' Q1 EPS/GMs missed by a tiny bit, and they kept their full-year guidance unchanged 🧦. It's a bit of a tight fit, but we'll call it neutral, for now, folks 😐.

Kraft whipped up solid Q1 upside with organic revenue growth driven by price 🧀. They're bumpin' up the outlook for FXN EBITDA growth, so we're feeling cheesy and positive about it 😄👍.

Ruth's Hospitality got picked up by Darden for $21.50/shr cash 💰. Nice dinner date! It's a positive situation for Ruth's shareholders 🥩👍.

Yum Brands reported solid comps, but EPS of $1.06 missed the Street's expectations 🍕. With negative impacts from investment losses and currency translation, we're saying this one's neutral 🍗😐.

Murphy Oil struck gold with strong EPS upside at $1.24, thanks to higher than anticipated production 🛢️. Full-year guidance remains unchanged, but we're feeling positive about this oil slick 😎👍.

Phillips 66 pumped out strong EPS upside at $4.21, with a solid beat in refinery pre-tax income ⛽. They're showering shareholders with billions, making progress towards their distribution target. It's lookin' like a smooth ride, folks 🚗👍.

Bausch + Lomb missed on EPS and EBITDA, and they're squinting at a lower EBITDA for the year 😔. Looks like they need a prescription for positivity, but for now, it's negative 🤓👎.

CVS Health flexed strong Q1 upside with revenue and EPS on point 💪. But, they're slicing the full-year EPS guide, which leaves us feeling neutral like we're stuck in the pharmacy aisle 🛒😐.

Eli Lilly's shares are poppin' in pre-market trading after some favorable Alzheimer's drug data 🧠. They've got the love potion for obesity and Alzheimer's, so it's a positive reaction in the lab 🥼👍.

Dentsply beamed with decent Q1 upside and raised the low-end of full-year revenue/EPS guidance 😁. They're biting into strong demand for aligners and consumables, so we're smiling about this positive dental development 🦷👍.

Adient missed on EPS but beat on EBITDA and revenue, while keeping full-year guidance steady 🚘. Modest improvements are emerging, but significant upside is tempered. Let's call this one a neutral drive 🛣️😐.

Belden reported Q1 upside and raised guidance for the year 📈. Their Q2 outlook falls a bit short, but we're still feeling pretty wired up about this one 🔌👍.

Bunge's EPS was inline and full-year guidance unchanged 🌾. Agribusiness did well, and Refined and Specialty Oils results were higher. We're calling it a steady harvest 🚜😐.

Emerson showcased strong FQ2 upside and raised guidance 📊. Their outstanding results were driven by end-market demand and excellent operational execution. We're feeling electric about this one ⚡👍.

Generac reported strong Q1 upside but left guidance unchanged 🔋. Residential sales were weak, but management remains positive about the business. It's a bit of a mixed power grid for us 🏘️😐.

Louisiana-Pacific had huge Q1 earnings upside despite falling short on revenue 🌲. They're expecting a stronger Q2 EBITDA. We're lumbering towards positivity with this one 🪵👍.

ScottsMiracle-Gro's FQ2 EPS beat estimates, but the EBITDA guide for the year is slightly down 🌻. With improved consumer demand, we're still feeling pretty green about this one 🌱👍.

Spirit reported a large EPS miss due to Boeing 737 fuselage issue and lower revenue ✈️. However, they outperformed on cash, and repairs are expected to be completed by July. We're in a bit of a holding pattern for now 🛫😐.

Trane reported strong EPS upside and raised full-year guidance modestly 🌬️. Bookings fell, but the B2B was strong. We're feeling cool and positive about this one ❄️👍.

AvidXchange reported solid Q1 upside on revenue and EBITDA, tweaking guidance higher for the year 💹. They're off to a strong start despite the volatile macro backdrop. Let's call this one a powerful move 💪👍.

Blackbaud's EPS and revenue were inline with estimates, but they're raising guidance by a decent amount 📈. We're feeling good about this one, non-profit style 🎗️👍.

CDW Corp. already issued a Q1 warning, so there isn't much new info from the actual release 🚨. We're staying cautious on this one 💻😐.

Criteo reported solid upside on EPS and EBITDA, with a decent Q2 guide 📊. Their full-year 2023 outlook remains unchanged. We're targeting this one with positivity 🎯👍.

Diebold missed on revenue and EBITDA, warning that any deleveraging transaction will dilute shareholder equity 🏧. We're not feeling secure about this one 🔐👎.

Gogo reported a small beat on EBITDA and a small miss on revenue, while reiterating guidance ✈️. They're also paying down $100M in debt. We're flying neutral with this one 🛩️😐.

Garmin reported a small EPS miss while revenues were slightly better, with full-year guidance unchanged 📍. We're staying on course with a neutral outlook 🗺️😐.

SunPower missed on EPS/EBITDA, with full-year guidance unchanged 🌞. Lower GMs offset higher revenue. We're shining a neutral light on this one 🔆😐.

Trimble reported upside on EPS/EBITDA, but missed on revenue and guided June EPS below estimates 📡. We're positioning ourselves with caution on this one 🛰️😐.

TTM Technologies missed on EPS and revenue, with a soft guide for June 🖥️. Revenues fell short due to demand weakness and supply chain challenges. We're staying grounded on this one 🛠️😐.

Verisk reported solid Q1 upside, including EPS, EBITDA, and revenue, with unchanged full-year guidance 📊. We're analyzing this one with a positive outlook 🔍👍.

World Wrestling reported upside on Q1 EBITDA, keeping prior full-year guidance unchanged 💪. We're giving this one a strong neutral grip 🤼😐.

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