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- Afternoon Round-up - May 3, 2023
Afternoon Round-up - May 3, 2023
Bullish. Dovish. Bearish. All at Once?
๐ฆ The Decision ft. Jerome Powell
๐ข Wednesday's market ride โ Stocks took a leisurely stroll before getting on a rollercoaster in the final two hours of the day. There was no clear winner between the bulls and bears after the Federal Reserve's decision. Some earnings letdowns and falling oil prices made the bears feel like they had the upper hand. Now, all eyes are on the European Central Bank, Apple's earnings, US jobs data, and the US CPI.
J-Pow Summoning The Force
๐ฆ Fed's decision aftermath - Most people thought the Fed would stop hiking at 5.25% or 5.5%, so ending at 5.25% wasn't a huge surprise. But we're now in a new era for US monetary policy, and further hikes would need a strong reason. More tightening is expected from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, but we're at a critical turning point towards a more cautious monetary policy.
๐ Bulls vs. ๐ป Bears โ Bulls are happy about the Fed ending its aggressive tightening, giving stocks some breathing room. Bears argue that even if it's the last hike, policy will remain tight, and the full effects on the economy haven't been felt yet. They worry that a cooling economy and tighter bank lending could raise the odds of a recession.
๐ Earnings and economy check-in โ We're in the last stretch of Q1 earnings season, so there's not much new to learn about the broader economic landscape. Q1 results have been strong, but most companies aren't raising their full-year guidance due to uncertainty. Estee Lauder had a particularly rough time, with weak trends in Asia. On the bright side, recent data shows that April was better than March for the US economy, but wage growth has cooled down.
โณ Debt ceiling deadlock โ Not much progress has been made on the debt ceiling issue. Options like the "discharge petition" strategy or questioning the debt ceiling's legality aren't promising quick fixes. With the deadline approaching and Biden meeting Congressional leaders only in May, we might need a short-term solution โ it's like asking for extra time on that term paper you just can't finish.
๐ฐMore Earnings!
Agriculture
Corteva (CTVA) ๐พ, an agriculture company, had a fantastic Q1! They beat expectations and even raised their guidance. ๐ฑ๐ช Farmers, rejoice! ๐
Mosaic (MOS) ๐, a fertilizer producer, didn't do so well in Q1. Their profits fell short, and their gross margins were lower than expected. Better luck next time, MOS! ๐ค
Banks
Regional bank stocks got a bit shaky ๐ฉ๏ธ after PacWest (PACW) ๐ฆ started "considering strategic options." People usually see this as a sign of weakness, but remember, not all banks are the same! Don't panic just yet. ๐จ๐
Healthcare
Amedisys (AMED) ๐ฅ, a home health and hospice care provider, is joining forces with Option Care Health (OPCH) ๐ in a $3.6B deal. AMED stockholders are getting 3.0213 shares of OPCH! ๐
Tandem (TNDM) ๐, a medical device company, had an okay Q1 but missed earnings expectations. They're still keeping their full-year outlook unchanged though. Fingers crossed! ๐ค
Housing
Zillow (ZG) ๐ , an online real estate platform, had a solid Q1, beating estimates! But the housing market is a bit shaky, so they're not sure about what's coming next. ๐คท
Insurance
Allstate (ALL) ๐, an insurance company, reported a smaller Q1 loss than expected, but still, things didn't go too well due to super high auto loss costs and "exceptionally high" cat losses. ๐ฑ Ouch!
MetLife (MET) ๐ข, a life insurance giant, missed their earnings target in Q1. Losses were caused by some not-so-great investments, but hey, they announced a $3B buyback authorization! ๐ฐ
Industrials
Albemarle (ALB) โ๏ธ, a specialty chemicals producer, had a strong Q1 but is cutting its yearly outlook because of lower lithium prices. Bummer! ๐
Ingersoll Rand (IR) ๐ญ, an industrial manufacturing company, rocked Q1 results and raised its yearly guidance! Go, industrial sector! ๐ช๐
Solar
AEIS (Advanced Energy) โก, power conversion experts, reported Q1 upside with better-than-expected EPS and revenue ๐. June guidance aligns with Street consensus ๐ฏ. Keep the energy flowing! ๐
RUN (Sunrun) ๐, solar installation specialists, shone bright in Q1, exceeding volume and Net Subscriber Value guidance ๐. Full-year guidance remains unchanged, but there's potential for growth! ๐
SEDG (SolarEdge) ๐ , solar energy innovators, experienced strong Q1 upside in EPS and revenue ๐. Gross margins ahead and supply chain challenges easing ๐ ๏ธ. June Q gross margin guidance looking strong! ๐ช
Tech
ACLS (Axcelis) ๐ญ, semiconductor tech provider, aced Q1 with EPS of 1.43 and revenue of $254MM ๐. Q2 looks promising and full-year revenue is on the rise! ๐
CDAY (Ceridian HCM) ๐ผ, HR software creator, outperformed in Q1 with EPS at 31c, increased revs, and Dayforce recurring revenue ๐ช. Full-year guidance? Upgraded! ๐
CFLT (Confluent) ๐ป, data streaming gurus, enjoyed solid Q1 results in EPS and revenue ๐ฐ. Yearly EPS guidance gets a boost! ๐
CTSH (Cognizant) ๐ฅ๏ธ, IT service masters, had a strong Q1, but the full-year outlook dims ๐ฅ๏ธ. Time for cost-cutting! โ๏ธ Beware, the IT sector's feeling gloomy. ๐
ETSY (Etsy) ๐๏ธ, craft marketplace extraordinaire, scored big in Q1 with EPS, revs, and more ๐. Q2? Mixed. Stay creative, crafty pals! ๐จ
FLT (FLEETCOR) โฝ, fleet fuel card experts, cruised through Q1 with EPS and revenue surpassing expectations ๐. Guidance for the year is revving up! ๐
FROG (JFrog) ๐ธ, software management pros, hopped over Q1 expectations with EPS of 6c ๐. Full-year guidance gets a little nudge. Keep on hopping! ๐ธ
HUBS (Hubspot) ๐, marketing wizards, wowed in Q1 with EPS of 1.20 and $501.6MM in revs ๐ฏ. They're raising the bar for yearly guidance! Abracadabra! ๐ฎ
INFA (Informatica) ๐, data management wizards, missed Q1 non-GAAP EPS but had strong top line metrics ๐ข. Full-year outlook unchanged, but Q2's a bit low. Stay tuned! ๐ป
KLIC (Kulicke & Soffa) ๐ง, semiconductor tools maker, enjoyed solid Q1 EPS upside but June guidance is soft ๐. Keep tightening those screws! ๐ฉ
MKSI (MKS Instruments) ๐ก๏ธ, precision instruments creator, smashed Q1 EPS expectations as they recover from a ransomware attack ๐ช. June Q? A tad shy. Keep the recovery going! ๐
OLED (Universal Display) ๐บ, OLED tech trailblazers, had a modest Q1 miss on EPS and revenue, but full-year guidance remains steady ๐ญ. Bonus: they acquired Merck KGaA's Phosphorescent OLED Emitter IP! ๐ฌ
QCOM (Qualcomm) ๐ฑ, wireless tech giants, had okay FQ2 results, but FQ3's looking dim ๐. Dividend? Up by 7%! Cha-ching! ๐ฐ Macro outlook? Gloomy. ๐
QRVO (Qorvo) ๐ก, RF solutions provider, reported solid FQ4 upside and promising June guidance ๐. Despite market weakness, they're ready for growth! ๐ฑ
SYNA (Synaptics) ๐ฑ๏ธ, human interface experts, gave soft FQ4 guidance with lower revenue and GMs ๐ธ. Time to tighten the belts! ๐
UPWK (Upwork) ๐ผ, freelancing platform gurus, had decent Q1 results, but they're trimming top line guidance due to macro softness ๐ฌ. Full-year EBITDA, however, gets a boost! ๐
Telecom
ATUS (Altice) ๐ก, telecom providers, missed on Q1 revenue, EBITDA, and free cash flow ๐ . Broadband and video subscribers dipped, but mobile sub adds were solid ๐. Capex guidance stays put ๐๏ธ.
EQIX (Equinix) ๐ข, data center trailblazers, showed strong earnings upside and raised full-year guidance ๐. They're taking data storage to new heights! ๐
Travel
HST (Host Hotels) ๐จ, a hotel properties specialist, reported strong results and raised its yearly growth expectations ๐, driven by increased room rates and occupancy.
TRIP (TripAdvisor) ๐, the travel review platform, posted lower earnings despite solid revenues, with Viator business performance affecting overall results ๐ข.
VAC (Marriott Vacations) ๐๏ธ, a timeshare company, saw better-than-expected earnings and raised yearly expectations, but other financial projections remained unchanged โ๏ธ.