Weekend Wrap - May 7, 2023

Earnings, Inflation & Debt Ceiling Talk Ahead

We’re Bringing Value Back 🎡

πŸ€” Weekend Update: Over the weekend, nothing earth-shattering happened. The debt ceiling situation slightly improved as the White House pushes for a short-term deal, but there's still work to be done to get everyone on board. So, hold on to your hats!

πŸ“Š Stock Thoughts: Some folks are spending too much time catastrophizing and chasing macro ghosts, but stocks ultimately boil down to earnings and multiples. Q1 earnings were surprisingly good, and the whole "death of GDP" thing has been greatly exaggerated. Inflation and monetary policy are approaching a dovish turning point, and stocks haven't been this unpopular since that one kid brought tuna sandwiches to a pizza party. Because of all this, we're staying optimistic but keeping an eye on the debt ceiling, regional banks, monetary policy, and valuations. So, it's a cautious optimism, like when you find a $20 bill on the ground and hope it's not covered in something nasty.

🎩 BRK.A (Berkshire Hathaway), Warren Buffett's famous conglomerate, had a pretty solid Q1. Operating earnings reached $8.065B, up from $7.16B last year, beating expectations with a little extra pizzazz. Revenue also soared 20% compared to last year to $85.4B, outshining predictions. 🌟

Insurance, especially GEICO, was the star performer, driving earnings skyward with higher premiums and reduced advertising costs. Railroads and energy businesses faced some headwinds, while manufacturing, service, and retailing just kind of chilled. πŸ¦ŽπŸš‚πŸ”‹

Berkshire went on a shopping spree, repurchasing $4.4B worth of shares in Q1, their most significant buyback since Q4:21. With an insurance float at $165B and a cash balance at $130.6B, it seems they're still ready for a rainy day. β˜”πŸ’°πŸ˜‰

🎯 Later Earnings!

πŸ’° PACW (PacWest), a regional bank, slashed its dividend from $0.25/share to $0.01/share, citing economic uncertainty and potential regulatory changes. They aim to build capital to a CET1 ratio of 10%+. Business remains fundamentally sound, but caution prevails. πŸ” The bank was placed on negative watch by Fitch, acknowledging recent events and potential transactions that may impact its credit ratings. No material change in credit profile since the April 14, 2023 downgrade. βš οΈπŸ“‰

πŸ” SPB (Spectrum Brands), a consumer products company, reaches a settlement with the DOJ regarding the government's challenge to the proposed Assa Abloy deal. They still expect the transaction to close on or before June 30, 2023. πŸ€βœ…

🌐 GOOGL (Alphabet), the parent company of Google, plans to make significant changes to its core search business by incorporating AI features, short video, and social media content. The tech giant adapts to stay relevant! πŸ€–πŸ”

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