Are We There Yet? 🎢

📊 Market Summary: US equity futures are mostly flat, with European indices experiencing slight gains and Asian markets mostly positive (except Japan). Treasury yields remain stable, and oil prices continue their rally. Gold edges higher, while bitcoin takes a dip. The market appears to be in a holding pattern, waiting for the next catalyst to emerge.

😅💹 Monday Market Madness: After a weekend as quiet as a library, US stocks are just chillin'. The only buzz-worthy updates are the slightly positive debt ceiling gossips and Berkshire's Q1 earnings flexing their muscles. There's a pinch of anxiety pre-CPI, but don't freak out; an overshoot won't send the market into a tailspin. However, time to rethink those H2 rate cut forecasts, folks.

📉🤯 Macro Munchies: Germany's industrial production takes a faceplant with a -3.4% M/M drop. China seeks a BFF relationship with the US, while the EU ponders sanctions on Chinese firms playing on Russia's team in the Ukraine war. Good ol' Kissinger sees a silver lining, with China potentially stepping in as peacemaker by year-end.

😅 How We're Thinking About Stocks: With a solid Q1 earnings season, powerful tailwinds, and inflation/monetary policy reaching a dovish turning point, stocks deserve more love than they're getting! 💔 But hey, we're not blind; there's still plenty to worry about, like the unresolved debt ceiling and regional banks acting like an aggressive risk cancer. So, let's hold our optimism with a pinch of caution. 🎢

😅📈 Fed Frenzy: If the April labor report arrived earlier, we think the Fed would still be singing the same song. With a bunch of rate hikes, QT, and regional bank drama, raising the Funds Rate beyond 5-5.25% is like asking for an extra topping after you've already maxed out your pizza. Bullard didn't go full hawk-mode after the jobs report, so maybe we're already in "restrictive enough" territory?

🎭🏛️ Debt Ceiling Circus: The White House is eyeing a short-term debt ceiling "band-aid," pushing the deadline to Sept 30. Yellen warns of economic chaos if Congress keeps dilly-dallying, while Biden keeps his 14th Amendment trump card up his sleeve. McConnell wants "substantive" budget reforms, but the nation is split on who to blame for this never-ending financial sitcom.

🏛️🍵 How's the Tea Over in Washington?

🤔💪 Stamina Showdown: Over 60% of Americans doubt Biden's mental or physical stamina for the top job. Only 1/3 believe he's fit for the presidency, while Trump boasts a 64% approval. Biden trails both Trump (44-38%) and DeSantis (42-37%) in head-to-head matchups, but undecided voters could swing the pendulum.

🥊🐘 Trump vs. DeSantis: Trump tramples DeSantis in a head-to-head matchup (43-20%), proving he's still the heavyweight champ in the Republican ring.

🚫🎭 Sinema's Stance: Sen. Sinema squashes rumors of turning to the dark side, vowing never to join the Republican Party.

🎯 Earnings Continued!

🔋 ENR (Energizer), a battery manufacturer, had a solid quarter with EPS at 64c (vs. 52c expected) and revenues of $684.1MM, roughly in line with expectations. However, they're sticking to prior full-year guidance, probably due to a stormy macro environment. 💰🔋😬

🐾 FRPT (Freshpet), a fresh pet food producer, reported Q1 revenue of $167.5MM, in line with estimates, and EBITDA of +$3MM, better than the -$3.4MM anticipated. The company remains confident in its full-year outlook. 🐶🍖📈

🌳 LL (LL Flooring), a flooring retailer, experienced a challenging Q1 with EPS at a 31c loss (vs. 15c loss expected) and revenue of $240.7MM (vs. $258MM expected). Management foresees a tough macro environment for the rest of 2023, which could impact consumer spending. 🏡📉😟

🌳 THS (TreeHouse), a food manufacturer, enjoyed Q1 upside with strong EPS of 68c (vs. 40c expected) and revenue of $895MM (vs. $852MM expected). Despite the beat, management isn't changing its full-year guidance. Future growth may be hindered by a dynamic macro environment. 🍲💪🌲

🍗 TSN (Tyson), a meat processor, reported a disappointing FQ2, with EPS at -$0.04 (vs. 0.79 expected) and revenue of $13.13B (vs. $13.6B expected). Operating margins in Beef, Pork, and Chicken underperformed, leading to a cut in full-year revenue forecast. 🐄🐖🐔💔

🍲 TUP (Tupperware), a household product company, expects Q1 revenue to be slightly higher at $285MM (vs. $272MM expected). However, they've identified accounting issues and material weaknesses in internal controls, making them feel like they've opened Pandora's box. 📦📉😬

🤝 KKR (KKR & Co), investment experts, outperformed with 81c earnings per share, making analysts smile. AUM hit $510 billion, but new capital raised was down 😕. Raise or lower your expectations? 📈💰🤷

💉 BNTX (BioNTech), vaccine superheroes, crushed EPS at €2.05, and revenues at €1.277B, thanks to Pfizer's COVID vaccine sales. But they're playing it cool, sticking to 2023 guidance. Chill or thrill? 💊🚀😎

💊 VTRS (Viatris), the pharma gurus, slightly missed on revenue but flexed on margins and earnings 💪. They're not changing their full-year guidance. Consistency is key, right? 📊🔑

📺 DISH (Dish Network), TV & wireless provider, didn't have the best quarter, missing on EPS and revenue. They also lost a bunch of subscribers, but hey, cash flow increased! 📉📺🙃

🔒 ZS (Zscaler), cybersecurity whiz kids, surprised everyone with awesome FQ3 results and upped their guidance. Cyber-party time! 🎉💻🔐

🎢 SIX (Six Flags), rollercoaster tycoons, reported decent Q1 results, with better EBITDA and revenue. Attendance dropped, but guests spent more money! Silver lining? 🎢💸🌤️

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