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- Afternoon Round-up - May 8, 2023
Afternoon Round-up - May 8, 2023
All Is Well?
๐๐ All Is Well? ๐
๐ Market Summary: Monday was about as exciting as watching paint dry, with the SPX and Nasdaq slightly up and the Dow and R2K going down like a deflated party balloon. Treasury yields rose like they had too much coffee, while Brent oil continued its rally. Gold inched higher, and bitcoin fell like it tripped on a digital banana peel.
๐คทโโ๏ธ Market Analysis: Indecision and diffidence led to a standstill in the bull vs. bear debate, like two indecisive squirrels in the middle of the road. Bulls struggle to see the SPX sustaining a move above 4200, while bears have a laundry list of reasons to avoid stocks. However, the market's resiliency is like a stubborn stain that won't go away, discouraging aggressive selling/shorting.
๐ก Our Take: We maintain a more optimistic outlook like a ray of sunshine in a cloudy sky due to strong earnings, the dovish inflection in global monetary policy and inflation, and extremely negative sentiment. While issues like the debt ceiling and valuations give us pause, an upside break for the SPX seems increasingly likely, like a surprise party guest.
๐ป Bearish Concerns: Bears are like nervous party planners, worrying about the market's complacency regarding the Fed, tightening lending standards, rising inflation expectations, the unresolved debt ceiling issue (talk about a party pooper), and potential political pressure on Biden.
๐ Bullish Arguments: Bulls, on the other hand, are like the life of the party, pointing to the high bar for additional rate hikes, lower 1-year inflation expectations, excess savings ready to be spent like Monopoly money, improving US-China relations, and strong Q1 earnings from large companies like Berkshire (who doesn't love a good success story?).
๐ฐEarnings!
Auto
๐ LCID (Lucid), an electric vehicle manufacturer, missed on revenue ($149.4MM) but remains focused on producing 10K+ vehicles this year. Not all about earnings! ๐๐ฐ
Consumer
๐ BRBR (BellRing), a consumer goods company, had a fantastic quarter with $385.6MM in revenue, beating expectations and raising guidance for the year. Ring the bell for success! ๐ช๐ฐ
๐พ ROVR (Rover), a pet services platform, had an impressive Q1 and raised their profit guidance to $29-34MM. Pawsitively great news! ๐
Energy
๐ข๏ธ DVN (Devon), an oil and gas producer, reported better than expected earnings ($1.46 EPS), thanks to solid oil production and cost controls. Shareholders are loving it! ๐ฐ๐
Financials
๐ก BHF (Brighthouse Financial), a life insurance provider, dimmed a bit with a $2.86 EPS miss. Better luck next time! ๐
๐ EVER (EverQuote), an online insurance marketplace, had a strong Q1 ($5.4M EBITDA) but Q2 looks shaky. A rollercoaster ride! ๐๐๐คท
๐ผ PRI (Primerica), a financial services company, saw a modest earnings boost ($3.49 EPS) but faces economic uncertainty. Sales and investments feeling the pressure! ๐ข
Healthcare
๐ DVA (DaVita), a kidney care provider, had a healthy Q1 ($1.58 EPS), beating expectations and raising guidance for the year. Dialysis dollars doing well! ๐๐ฅณ
โค๏ธ HIMS (Hims & Hers), a telehealth company, enjoyed a solid Q1 with $190.8MM in revenue and raised their outlook for the year. Love is in the air! ๐๐๐
๐ MCK (McKesson), a healthcare supply chain company, had a modest Q4 win ($7.19 EPS) and raised long-term growth targets. The sky's the limit! ๐๐
๐ค PINC (Premier), a healthcare improvement company, is exploring new strategies to boost stockholder happiness. Exciting times ahead! ๐ก๐ธ
Industrials
๐ ACM (Aecom), an infrastructure consulting firm, reported modest Q2 wins with $3.49B in revenue and $244MM EBITDA. Steady as she goes! ๐ง๐
๐ฉ CENX (Century Aluminum), an aluminum producer, had a decent Q1 with $552.4MM in revenue, but the Q2 outlook falls short with expected $25-30MM EBITDA. A bit of a mixed bag. ๐ญ๐ข
๐บ IFF (IFF), a fragrance and flavor company, saw Q1 earnings with $503MM EBITDA and $3.02B revenue. However, they're tweaking down full-year revenue guidance to $12.3B. A delicate balance. ๐๐
๐ช JELD (JELD-WEN), a door and window manufacturer, reported amazing Q1 results with $1.222B in revenue and raises EBITDA guidance for the year. Doors wide open for success! ๐๐ก
๐ง MWA (Mueller Water), a water infrastructure company, had Q2 results inline with expectations ($333MM in revenue). Anticipating higher pricing and growth this year. ๐ฆ๐
โป๏ธ PTVE (Pactiv Evergreen), a food packaging manufacturer, enjoyed solid EBITDA upside at $189MM and raised EBITDA guidance for the year. Wrapped up nicely! ๐ฑ๐ฐ
๐ณ TREX (Trex), a decking materials company, reported modest earnings upside with $69MM EBITDA and plans to repurchase up to 10% of total shares outstanding. Building a solid future! ๐ฒ๐ธ
Real Estate
๐ข HPP (Hudson Pacific), a real estate investment trust, missed on FFO (35c) due to lower production activity and higher interest expense. Dividend cut by 40-50% - bumpy ride ahead! ๐ฌ๐
Tech
๐จ๏ธ DDD (3D Systems) missed Q1 revenue targets ($121.2MM) due to softness in dental orthodontic market. Headcount cut by 6% to save $10MM annually. Printing some cost savings. ๐ธ๐
๐ง FN (Fabrinet), a manufacturing services provider, reported solid Q3 with $665.3MM revenue, but Q4 outlook falls short. Navigating inventory adjustments and component availability. ๐ฉ๐ข
๐ฎ PLTR (Palantir), a data analytics company, enjoyed Q1 upside with $525MM revenue, but Q2 outlook light on revenue. Full-year guidance raised. Future's still bright! ๐ฎ๐
๐ธ PYPL (PayPal), a digital payments company, had solid Q1 with $7.04B revenue and plans to repurchase $4B in stock this year. Full-year EPS guidance raised. Cha-ching! ๐ฐ๐
๐ก SWKS (Skyworks), a semiconductor company, reported inline Q1 results ($1.153B revenue) but soft Q3 outlook. Communication may be patchy. ๐ถ๐
๐ฌ VECO (Veeco), a tech equipment provider, reported strong Q1 with $163.5MM revenue and expects higher Q2 EPS. Shining a light on success! ๐ก๐
๐พ WDC (Western Digital), a data storage company, had better-than-feared Q3 results ($2.8B revenue) but soft Q4 outlook. Searching for a memory boost. ๐ฅ๏ธ๐