Afternoon Round-up - May 9, 2023

Good evening! Tonight’s edition includes a dose of:

• Weakening bear narratives 🚀

• The usual debt ceiling talk 💳🏦

• PayPal gets smacked around 🫱🫲

• Earnings season continues to have mixed results 💵💵

Market Levels in a Nutshell: The SPX took a tumble, ending 19 points down, while the R2K took a modest dip of 4.8 points. Treasuries got a light kick, and the DXY put on its running shoes for a 25bp rally. Gold shone a bit brighter, climbing 65bp, and Bitcoin nudged up a smidgen to $27.67K. As for Brent, it managed a shy 30bp ascent, while US natural gas gave a solid 120bp leap. 📉🪙

Tuesday's Playground: It seems like another episode of 'Groundhog Day' in the market - the same old villains rear their heads: unresolved debt ceiling, regional banking turmoil, China's stalling recovery, stubborn inflation, and a Fed that's yet to call it quits. But in spite of this, the day was, well, yawn-worthy. It's like watching a movie where you already know the plot. 🎬🍿

Stock Sentiment: The stock market right now feels like a standoff in an old western movie - bulls on one side, bears on the other, and neither daring to make a move. The bulls are eyeing that elusive 4200 SPX mark, while the bears, despite hating fundamentals like a cat hates water, are hesitant to short/sell. Why? Well, the market's resilience could lead to a sudden, knee-jerk rally. But we're still rooting for the bulls. Key factors like earnings/margins and monetary tightening are doing a little dance in their favor, while the bears are starting to sound like a broken record, recycling old news and chasing macro ghosts. The doom and gloom around regional banks and office-linked REITs seem like a scene from a horror movie that's not as scary as it seems. Of course, there are some 'bumps in the night' to watch out for - the ever-present debt ceiling headline risk, not-so-attractive valuations, and the market's over-zealousness in pricing in H2 rate cuts. 🐂🐻👻

Auto

🚗 RIVN (Rivian), the eco-conscious automotive manufacturer backed by Amazon, reported Q1 EPS of $(1.25), beating Wall Street's estimate of $(1.57). The future's looking electric! ⚡💰

Consumer

👟 BIRD (Allbirds), your go-to for sustainable and comfy footwear, reported revenues of $54.4M, soaring over Wall Street's $48.1M forecast, despite a challenging quarter. Steps in the right direction! 🌱💸

☕ BROS (Dutch Bros), the friendly coffee chain originating from Oregon, beat earnings expectations but saw slightly lower revenue. They're staying on track with their 2023 guidance. Brew it up! 🚀☕

🛒 GO (Grocery Outlet), the bargain grocery chain loved for its discounted gems, reported EPS of $0.27, surpassing Wall Street's $0.23 prediction, and raised guidance for the year. Cart full of gains! 🛍️💵

🏌️‍♂️ MODG (Topgolf Callaway), a favorite for golf enthusiasts and casual hangouts alike, reported Q1 revenue of $1.167B, beating Wall Street's $1.13B forecast, and lifted full-year guidance. Swing for the green! 🎯💲

Energy

🛢️ OXY (Occidental), one of the world's largest oil companies, missed on EPS but exceeded production guidance and raised full-year outlook. Keep pumping! ⛽💪

Financials

💰 HRB (H&R Block), the tax experts you turn to every April, missed FQ3 EPS, and they're cutting guidance for the year. A taxing quarter! 😬💼

🤝 JXN (Jackson Financial), a major player in retirement products, reported EPS at $3.15, falling short of Wall Street's $3.85 forecast. Long-term confidence remains! 🎯📈

💼 LNC (Lincoln), a prominent insurer and retirement solutions provider, reported EPS at $1.52, missing Wall Street's $1.63 forecast. A rough quarter, but they're staying the course. 📉💰

💳 AFRM (Affirm), the buy now, pay later fintech innovator, reported GMV of $4.6B and revenue of $381M, both beating estimates. Looking bright for future spending! 🌞💳

📈 UPST (Upstart), the AI-driven lending platform, reported EPS of $(0.47), outperforming the Street's $(0.82) estimate. Onwards and upwards! 🚀💸

Healthcare

👁️ ALC (Alcon), the eye care leaders, reported EPS of $0.70, beating Wall Street's $0.61 estimate, and raised constant currency guidance for the year. A clear vision ahead! 🌟💲

🧬 EXAS (Exact Sciences), pioneers in cancer screening, reported solid revenue upside of $602M and lifted the full-year revenue guidance. Healthy prognosis! 🧪💰

💉 HALO (Halozyme), the biotech firm making waves in enzyme-based therapies, reported EPS inline with the Street but fell short on revenue. They're staying the course with their 2023 guidance. 💉📈

Real Estate

�� COMP (Compass), the modern real estate platform, reported solid results with revenue of $957M, beating Wall Street's $907M forecast. They're looking to be cash flow positive in 2023. Navigating to profit! 🧭💵

Tech

💼 AKAM (Akamai), keeping the internet highway smooth for your binge-watching sessions, reported an EPS of $1.40, scoring a neat $0.08 more than the Street's forecast of $1.32. Looks like they're playing the game right! 🎮

🛠️ ANGI (Angi), your go-to app for that sudden home leak, reported a whopping EBITDA of $31MM in Q1, making the Street's $10MM look like pocket change. Who knew leaky faucets could be so lucrative? 💰

🎮 EA (Electronic Arts), the mastermind behind your gaming addiction, saw their Q4 revenue level up by 15% to $1.946B, leaving the Street's $1.314B in the dust. Their EPS of $1.78 also outperformed the Street's forecast of $1.31. "Game Over" for the doubters! 🏆

🥊 EDR (Endeavor), making sports and entertainment even more exciting, landed a solid punch with Q1 revenues of $1.597B and an EBITDA of $306.4MM, both slightly above the Street's expectations. They're not pulling any punches for 2023! 💪

💾 IAC (IAC Inc.), the puppeteer of various internet brands, gave the Street a wake-up call by raising their EBITDA guidance from $270-400MM to $320-440MM. "Honey, I Shrunk the Market Cap," anyone? 📈

🍔 OLO (Olo), the unsung hero of your late-night food orders, cooked up a small upside in Q1 on EPS and revenue, and served a tastier full-year guidance for revenue and operational income. Who ordered the financial success with a side of guidance boost? 🌭

☎️ RNG (RingCentral), the secret sauce behind your WFH communication, dialed in some solid Q1 results, beating the Street's consensus, and then dropped the mic by raising their 2023 revenue/op. margin guidance. Talk about a good call! 📞

🍽️ TOST (Toast), ensuring you get your avocado toast on time, every time, reported solid upside on revenues, ARR, and GPV. They're serving a hot plate of raised guidance for the year. Bon appétit! 🥑

📡 TWLO (Twilio), making sure your texts don't end up in the cloud (literally), reported an impressive EPS upside at $0.47, leaving the Street's $0.21 forecast on "read." They're turning up the volume for fiscal year 2023. 📈

📝 ZIP (ZipRecruiter), the fairy job-mother of the internet, posted modest revenue upside and an impressive EBITDA beat. Keeping their full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance steady and announcing a $100MM buyback? Now that's a happy ending! 💰

Leisure

🏠 ABNB (Airbnb), turning strangers' homes into your vacation spot, posted Q1 revenue of $1.818B, a cozy $27M above the Street's expectation of $1.791B. They're making it rain with a free cash flow of $1.6B, doubling their size pre-pandemic! But hold your horses, their EBITDA guidance is looking a bit chilly. 🏖️

🎟️ EB (Eventbrite), your ticket to that underground concert, managed to sell a few more tickets with a revenue of $78MM, slightly above the Street's $74MM. But, their EBITDA of $2.1MM didn't quite hit the note, falling a tad short of the Street's $5.24MM. They've still got some rhythm though, tweaking their full-year revenue guidance higher! 🎶

🎲 WYNN (Wynn), the reason behind your Vegas stories, hit the jackpot in Q1 with revenue of $1.42B, leaving the Street's $1.38B in the dust. Their EBITDA and EPS also beat the odds, and they're putting the chips back on the table by resuming their dividend. Looks like what happens in Vegas... also happens in Macau! 💰

🪄🪄 With Finsights, you get Wall Street wisdom delivered straight to your pocket. Subscribe today and spread the wealth by forwarding this email to a friend who deserves it.

Fin-specto Revelio!