Afternoon Round-up - May 15, 2023

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• 💃💃 Equities do a little dance

• 📝 Empire Report absorbed or... ignored?

• 🎵 Will the real Debt Ceiling deadline please stand up?

📈 Equity Markets Do a Happy Dance: Yesterday was a bit like a surprise party for the S&P500 (SPX) as it inched up 12.5 points, a 0.3% increase, closing at a modest but respectable 4136. The equal-weight version of the SPX, the wallflower of the market, stole the spotlight by outperforming its cap-weight counterpart with a 0.48% increase. The Dow Jones chipped in with an extra 50 points (0.15%), and the Nasdaq, always the life of the party, rallied up 80 points (0.66%). The Russell 2000 (R2K) index, usually flying under the radar, had a field day, surging 20.7 points (1.19%). Meanwhile, China's HXC Index made some noise, soaring by a whopping 4.07%, ahead of the country's April economic data release. 🎉🌏

📉 Treasury Yields Play Hard to Get: Treasury bonds proved they're not easy, with selling pressure pushing up yields by 1-5 basis points across different maturities, despite the gloomy Empire Manufacturing report. As for the Federal Reserve's plans, the market is still betting on a year-end Federal Funds Rate of 4.4%. So, no surprises there. 💸💔

💱 The USD's Roller Coaster Ride and Commodity Updates: The Dollar Index (DXY) took a little dip, dropping 0.25% - a bit like dipping your toes in the water before a swim. The USD had a mixed day, losing some ground against the GBP, CAD, AUD, and NZD, but flexing its muscles against the JPY. In the commodities market, Brent crude oil prices decided to join the rally party, bouncing back by about 1.3%. Gold prices, the steady Eddies of the market, inched up 0.2% to chill around $2015 per ounce. Bitcoin, being Bitcoin, did a somersault and gained around $1K from Friday, reaching $27.41K by Monday's close. 🎢🛢️💰

🗓️ Monday's Market Shenanigans: If Monday was a movie, it would be a low-key indie film - not much action, but a lot of character development. The equal-weight S&P outshone the cap-weight version, suggesting that it's not just the big guys that can make a difference. The less-than-stellar Empire report for May added a touch of drama but didn't change the storyline significantly. Investors are eagerly watching the ongoing saga of the debt ceiling discussions and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance. 🎬🏦

🔮 Our Market Crystal Ball: It's not all doom and gloom in the market world. Even though a few recent data points are throwing some shade on the economy, we're not ready to call it a night just yet. We're keeping our eyes peeled for key earnings reports from Home Depot, Target, Cisco, and Walmart this week. If these companies can weather the storm, it bodes well for the rest of us. The end of the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle has also lifted a weight off our shoulders. As for the debt ceiling negotiations, we're not losing sleep over it. After all, the market loves a good cliffhanger. 🧐🔜

💸 Yellen Sounds the Alarm: After the markets closed on Monday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sent a letter to House Speaker McCarthy, warning that the US could hit the debt ceiling as soon as June 1. The Treasury had earlier hinted at a possible breach in early June. It's a bit like a late rent notice from your landlord - it's never good news and you can't ignore it. 😲📩

🏦 Short Selling Ban? Not Happening: In a move straight out of a Hollywood drama, SEC Chair Gary Gensler shut down rumors about a ban on short selling of bank stocks. It's as if he said, "Cut! We're not going down that storyline." So, for all the short-sellers out there, it's business as usual. 🎬💼

💪 Fed's Vice Chair Talks Tough on Banks: Fed Vice Chair Barr had some stern words for the banking sector in his testimony after Monday's close. He reiterated that the banking system is "strong and resilient" and that depositors' funds are safe. It's a bit like reassuring a scared child during a thunderstorm - everything's going to be okay. He also hinted that the Fed might start asking more of banks, especially those that don't meet certain criteria. So, banks, time to step up your game. 💡🏛️

🛢️ US to Buy Barrels of Fun (aka Oil): The US is getting ready to splash out on 3 million barrels of oil to start refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This shouldn't come as a surprise. After selling 200 million barrels, the Department of Energy said last week that it would start restocking the SPR once a congressionally mandated drawdown ends in June. It's like when you empty out your pantry, only to realize you need to restock it for your next baking spree. 🧁⛽

In some pleasant or unpleasant news, it’s crickets out there in earnings world! The intern finally gets to nap. 🛌🛌

🌯 That's a wrap for the day. 🌯

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Fin-specto Revelio!